Early rheumatoid arthritis: The performance of the 2010 ACR/EULAR criteria for diagnosing RA




Abstract


New classification criteria for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) were presented by the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) and the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) in 2010, aiming for early identification of patients at risk of developing persistent and erosive arthritis. Since their publication, the criteria have been extensively validated against several reference standards, but there is still debate regarding how the criteria should be implemented in studies and clinical care. We present an overview of the published validation studies and discuss the strengths and limitations of the classification criteria, as well as whether the criteria are ready for diagnostic purposes in clinical practice.


Introduction


Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a multi-faceted inflammatory disease affecting joints and surrounding structures as well as other organ systems. RA has traditionally been associated with a substantial burden of disease, loss of work productivity and increased mortality . The pathophysiology of RA is not completely understood, and no single test or gold standard exists to confirm the diagnosis. Hence, the diagnosis is made based on a set of findings and symptoms typical for the RA phenotype rather than measurement of the specific pathogenic processes that lead to this phenotype. It is pivotal to be able to identify the RA phenotype at an early stage of disease development, because timely intervention with disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs) has been shown to improve the outcome of this disease . The window of opportunity hypothesis states that there is a time frame in the early stages of disease development where treatment could delay or prevent the disease from becoming chronic and effectively reduce the chance of erosive changes to the joints . Significant advances in the understanding of the underlying disease processes that cause inflammation has led to the development of targeted therapies against molecules that are involved in this inflammation (e.g., cytokines like tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha and interleukin (IL)-6). These new biologic agents not only act to alleviate symptoms but also intervene directly with the disease process and therefore have the potential to improve long-term outcome in RA patients. Remission is now a realistic option in RA, partly due to these novel medications and partly as a result of modern targeted treatment strategies using early optimised doses of methotrexate (MTX) with additional treatment being escalated more frequently .




Classification criteria vs. diagnostic criteria


To create a common background for disease definition, both diagnostic and classification criteria for RA have been developed over the years. Although diagnostic and classification criteria may consist of the same type of clinical, laboratory or other markers, they have different aims. The purpose of classification criteria is to ensure homogeneity among patients in clinical studies. They should be applied to patients in whom a diagnosis has already been made and should ideally have high specificity (close to 100%), so that patients without the disease are not misclassified. Classification criteria should provide a dichotomous answer (yes/no). By contrast, diagnostic criteria facilitate the clinician in making a diagnosis in an individual patient. The prevalence or pretest probability of the disease is of interest, as this will influence the predictive performance of the criteria . For example, the risk of a patient having RA will be relatively high in an early arthritis clinic (EAC) and relatively low in a primary-care facility. Diagnostic criteria should ideally have high positive predictive value and likelihood ratios and should provide a graded estimate of probability of disease (e.g., expressed by percent chance, a score or in categories like definite/probable/possible) .




Classification criteria vs. diagnostic criteria


To create a common background for disease definition, both diagnostic and classification criteria for RA have been developed over the years. Although diagnostic and classification criteria may consist of the same type of clinical, laboratory or other markers, they have different aims. The purpose of classification criteria is to ensure homogeneity among patients in clinical studies. They should be applied to patients in whom a diagnosis has already been made and should ideally have high specificity (close to 100%), so that patients without the disease are not misclassified. Classification criteria should provide a dichotomous answer (yes/no). By contrast, diagnostic criteria facilitate the clinician in making a diagnosis in an individual patient. The prevalence or pretest probability of the disease is of interest, as this will influence the predictive performance of the criteria . For example, the risk of a patient having RA will be relatively high in an early arthritis clinic (EAC) and relatively low in a primary-care facility. Diagnostic criteria should ideally have high positive predictive value and likelihood ratios and should provide a graded estimate of probability of disease (e.g., expressed by percent chance, a score or in categories like definite/probable/possible) .




Previous criteria sets


The 1958 diagnostic criteria for RA were the first set of criteria to gain widespread use ( Table 1 a) . The criteria were originally published in 1956, but were revised 2 years later. These criteria consisted of a set of 11 elements, where 5/11 had to be fulfilled for a patient to be considered to have definite RA. Two of the criteria were histologic features and one required synovial fluid examination. These three criteria were omitted in a later revision in 1961 in Rome, and a set of exclusion criteria was added . The criteria showed good sensitivity and specificity when compared to the later 1987 criteria . Interestingly, a patient would be considered to have probable RA if three or four of the 1958 criteria were met and the exclusion criteria were fulfilled.



Table 1

Classification criteria for rheumatoid arthritis.






































a) The 1958 revision of the diagnostic criteria for RA. A patient has classical RA if 7 of 11 criteria are fulfilled. Adapted from reference
1 Morning stiffness
2 Pain on motion or tenderness in at least one joint a
3 Swelling a (soft tissue thickening or fluid – not bony overgrowth alone) in at least one joint
4 Swelling a of at least one other joint (any interval free of joint symptoms between the two joint involvements may not be more than three months)
5 Symmetric joint swelling a with simultaneous involvement of the same joint on both sides of the body (bilateral involvement of midphalangeal, metacarpophalangeal or metatarsophalangeal joints is acceptable without absolute symmetry). Terminal phalangeal joint involvement will not satisfy this criterion
6 Subcutaneous nodules a over bony prominences, on extensor surfaces or in juxta-articular regions
7 X-ray changes typical of rheumatoid arthritis (which must include at least bony decalcification localized to or greatest around the involved joints and not just degenerative changes). Degenerative changes do not exclude patients from any group classified as rheumatoid arthritis
8 Positive agglutination test – demonstration of the “rheumatoid factor” or positive streptococcal agglutination test
9 Poor mucin precipitate from synovial fluid (with shreds or cloudy solution)
10 Characteristic histologic changes in synovial membrane (…)
11 Characteristic histologic changes in nodules (…)


























b) The 1987 American Rheumatism Assocsiation (ARA) classification criteria for RA. A patient is classified as RA if at least 4 of 7 criteria are satisfied. Adapted from reference 13.
1 Morning stiffness
2 Arthritis of 3 or more joint areas
3 Arthritis of hand joints
4 Symmetric arthritis
5 Rheumatoid nodules
6 Serum rheumatoid factor
7 Radiographic changes b





















































c) The ACR/EULAR 2010 classification criteria for RA. A score of 6 or more classifies a patient as definite RA. Adapted from references 16 & 17.
JOINTS (0–5) Points
1 large joint 0
2-10 large joints 1
1-3 small joints (large joints not counted) 2
4-10 small joints (large joints not counted) 3
>10 joints (at least one small joint) 5
SEROLOGY (0–3)
Negative RF AND negative ACPA 0
Low positive RF OR low positive ACPA 2
High positive OR high positive ACPA 3
SYMPTOM DURATION (0–1)
<6 weeks 0
≥6 weeks 1
ACUTE PHASE REACTANTS (0–1)
Normal CRP AND ESR 0
Abnormal CRP OR ESR 1

Patients should have at least 1 joint with definite clinical synovitis (swelling), with the synovitis not better explained by another disease. ACR, American College of Rheumatology; EULAR, European League Against Rheumatism; RF, rheumatoid factor; ACPA, anti-citrullinated protein antibody; CRP, C-reactive protein; ESR, erythrocyte sedimentation rate.

a Observed by a physician. In criteria 1–5 the joint signs or symptoms must be continuous for at least 6 weeks. Definite RA: 5/11 criteria fulfilled. Probable RA: 3/11 criteria fulfilled, in at least one of criteria 1–5 the signs/symptoms must be continuous for at least 6 weeks. The criteria also comprise a list of exclusions (not shown). RA, rheumatoid arthritis.


b Of the hands. Criteria 1 through 4 must have been present for at least 6 weeks. ARA, American Rheumatism Association; RA, rheumatoid arthritis.



In 1987, the American Rheumatism Association developed classification criteria to ensure that individuals enrolled in clinical trials really had RA ( Table 1 b) . The criteria were developed using patients with longstanding disease (mean duration 8 years) and had a sensitivity of 91% and a specificity of 89% in the original population. The criteria are useful for distinguishing patients with established RA from those with other inflammatory arthritides, but have proven less valuable for identification of RA in the early phases of the disease or to determine who would benefit from early intervention . Several features included in the 1987 criteria are infrequently found in early disease, such as erosive changes and rheumatoid nodules. With modern treatment strategies and the acceptance of the concept of RA as an evolving disease, the need for new criteria facilitating early identification has become apparent. In addition, the convincing body of evidence regarding the importance of antibodies against citrullinated proteins (ACPAs) in RA has been highlighted in the debate regarding the need for new criteria .




The 2010 ACR/EULAR classification criteria for RA


The new classification criteria for RA were developed by a task force consisting of members from the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) and the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) and were published in 2010 ( Table 1 c) . The aim of the task force was to identify patients with undifferentiated arthritis who were likely to develop a chronic, erosive disease. The criteria were designed to form a basis for initiation of DMARDs in such patients. These were developed through three elaborate phases . In the initial, data-driven phase, data from nine European and Canadian EACs on 3115 patients with early undifferentiated arthritis (UA) were used to identify clinical and laboratory markers associated with the rheumatologist’s decision to start MTX therapy. The independent contribution of each variable was determined through univariate regression modelling, principal component analysis and subsequent multivariate regression analysis. Swollen and tender joints in the fingers and wrists, acute-phase reactants and levels of serological markers were found to contribute to the predefined outcome. Phase II was consensus based and included a panel of 24 rheumatologists (12 from North America and 12 from Europe) who engaged in a Delphi process. The purpose of this phase was to identify clinical and laboratory factors deemed to influence the probability of developing “persistent inflammatory and/or erosive arthritis that is currently considered to be RA.” This was obtained with the help of a set of real-life case scenarios that each clinician contributed to the process. Through review of these case histories by the expert panel, the domains that were important in determining the probability of developing RA were identified. The weights of these domains and categories within the domains were determined by use of decision-support computer software ( www.1000minds.com ) and decision-science theory. In the final and third phase of the criteria development, the results of phases I and II were combined. The scoring system was refined and the optimal cut-point to define ‘definite’ RA was determined. The cut-point was optimised to ensure high sensitivity to capture patients who could benefit from MTX therapy. The final criteria set consists of a scoring system with four domains: distribution of swollen and tender joints (range 0–5 points), serology (range 0–3 points), acute-phase reactants (range 0–1 point) and duration of joint swelling (range 0–1 points). In order to be evaluated by the criteria, a patient must have at least one joint with definite clinical synovitis (swelling) and the synovitis should not be better explained by another disease. A patient with a score of 6 or more out of 10 possible points is considered to have definite RA. Patients with evidence of erosive disease typical for RA with a history compatible with prior fulfilment of the criteria are automatically classified as RA. ‘Erosive disease typical for RA’ was recently defined as a cortical break (erosion) seen in at least three separate joints in the following sites: the proximal interphalangeal (PIP), the metacarpophalangeal (MCP), the wrist (counted as one joint) and the metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joints on radiographs of both hands and feet . The fulfilment of the criteria can also be determined by use of a tree algorithm, yielding the same results as the list format.




Performance of the 2010 criteria according to different reference standards


Many studies have tried to validate the new classification criteria. However, the studies have used different gold standards for validation, different follow-up times and different populations. Here we summarise the main findings that have been published so far according to the reference standards used.


Predicting DMARD (MTX) treatment


Choosing a gold standard for validation of RA criteria is difficult as no single test or clinical finding exists to distinguish RA from other forms of arthritis. The decision to start MTX was used as the original reference standard when the criteria were developed; thus many of the validation studies have used this as a validation outcome ( Table 2 ) . The criteria were designed not only to identify patients with a high risk of disease persistency and/or erosive changes but also as a tool to initiate DMARD treatment in patients with new-onset inflammatory arthritis. It is therefore of great clinical interest to see how the criteria perform in real-life settings to predict this outcome.



Table 2

Validation studies for the 2010 ACR/EULAR classification criteria for rheumatoid arthritis: DMARD or MTX initiation as reference standard.












































































Study Patients Inclusion period n Outcome assessment Sensitivity Specificity
Alves REACH cohort
SJC ≥ 1 or TJC ≥ 2/loss of movement AND ≥ 2 criteria: morning stiffness > 1 h, unable to clench fist in morning, pain when shaking someone’s hand, pins and needles in fingers, difficulty wearing rings or shoes, family history of RA, unexplained fatigue < 1 year
2004–2008 513 MTX 12 months 0.74 0.66
Biliavska SAVE study cohort
Early arthritis ≤ 16 weeks symptom duration
2004–2007 303 1) DMARD 12 months
2) MTX 12 months
0.85
0.84
0.64
0.57
Britsemmer Jan van Breemen Institute EAC
SJC ≥ 2, symptom duration < 2 years, no prior DMARD
2000 455 MTX 12 months 0.85 0.50
Cader Sandwell and West Birmingham Hospitals EAC
SJC ≥ 1, <3 months symptom duration
NS 205 1) DMARD 18 months
2) MTX 18 months
0.62
0.68
0.78
0.72
Fautrel ESPOIR cohort
SJC ≥ 2, duration 6 weeks-6 months
2002–2005 811 1) MTX 6 months
2) DMARD 6 months
0.88
0.86
0.32
0.46
Kaneko Patients with “joint symptoms”: arthralgia, swelling, morning stiffness 2009–2010 313 DMARD 0.74 0.71
Reneses Early arthritis 4–12 months, SJC ≥ 2 201 1) MTX 12 months
2) DMARD 12 months
0.80
0.75
0.62
0.73
Van der Linden Leiden EAC
SJC ≥ 1, <2years
1993–2009 2258 1) MTX 12 months
2) DMARD 12 months
0.84
0.74
0.60
0.74

ACR, American College of Rheumatology, EULAR, European League Against Rheumatism; RA, rheumatoid arthritis; SJC, swollen joint count; TJC, tender joint count; MTX, methotrexate; DMARD, disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug; EAC, early arthritis clinic.


For most of the studies, the follow-up time was 12 months, one study followed patients for 6 months and one study for 18 months . For MTX start, sensitivities ranged from 0.68 to 0.88, but most studies found a sensitivity >0.80 or 80% for this outcome. Specificities had a wider range (0.32–0.78), but most studies reported values >0.60. A recent systematic literature review and meta-analysis of validation studies for the 2010 criteria found a pooled sensitivity of 0.85 and pooled specificity of 0.52 for MTX start .


Studies looking at decision to start any DMARD found similar performance as using MTX start as reference standard, with sensitivities in the range of 0.62–0.86 and specificities ranging from 0.46 to 0.78. The pooled estimates in the aforementioned meta-analysis were 0.80 for sensitivity and 0.65 for specificity. Some studies also investigated the performance of the 1987 criteria to predict DMARD prescription in the same population, and all found lower sensitivity than the 2010 criteria but higher specificity .


The studies have several strengths. The Stop Arthritis Very Early (SAVE) study is an international study, which increases the external validity of the findings . The other studies present real-life data from several EACs from 2000 onwards, and therefore have the ability to reflect modern MTX or DMARD prescription habits. In addition, most studies present new data that were not part of the Phase 1 of the criteria development. However, two studies used patients who were also included in the data-driven part of the criteria development and there is a risk of over-fitting of data . One study used patient material partly recorded in the 1990s, when rheumatologists presumably had different standards for DMARD initiation .


Thus, the new criteria consistently identify a reasonably high proportion of patients who will require DMARD treatment within the first year of follow-up, around 80%. The 2010 criteria appear to add to the sensitivity for predicting this outcome compared to the 1987 criteria, at the cost of lower specificity. This means that there is a risk of overtreatment if the criteria are used as a basis to initiate therapy. However, fewer who will eventually need treatment are missed. Biliavska et al. demonstrated that many of the 2010 RA patients who did not receive MTX in their study had arthritis duration of more than 6 weeks . The authors argue that these patients probably would benefit from DMARD therapy and that treatment in these patients therefore would have been appropriate anyway. Overtreatment may not be a major problem with synthetic DMARDs, but is an issue of greater concern if expensive and highly immunosuppressive biologics are started in patients who do not need them.


Prediction of clinical RA diagnosis/expert opinion


This gold standard has high face validity, but is potentially biased by the individual physician’s experience and preferences and influenced by what information was available to the doctor at the time of diagnosis (e.g., ACPA status). Importantly, this outcome is also biased by the old criteria themselves, as the rheumatologist trained to think of RA using the paradigm of the 1987 criteria was likely to have these in ‘the back of his/her head’ when diagnosing RA. Circularity is a challenge when using expert opinion of RA as the reference standard.


Several studies have evaluated this outcome ( Table 3 ) . The sensitivities ranged from 0.59 to 0.95, while specificities ranged as widely as 0.34–0.96. Radner et al. found the pooled estimates to be 0.88 for sensitivity and 0.48 for specificity . Substantial heterogeneity between the study populations was seen, with regard to duration of symptoms, inclusion- and exclusion criteria (e.g., untreated polyarthritis lasting <6 weeks and early arthritis (EA) lasting for <2 years 23 ) and follow-up times ranging from 6 months to 20 years. These differences probably explain some of the large variations in specificity. Britsemmer compared the performance of the 2010 and 1987 criteria to predict a clinical RA diagnosis by 1 year and found that the 1987 criteria had lower sensitivity (0.65 vs. 0.85) but higher specificity (0.80 vs. 0.64) . In a French study, the 2010 and 1987 criteria had similar sensitivities (0.58 vs. 0.60) for predicting a diagnosis of RA after 10 years, but the 2010 criteria actually had higher specificity (0.89 vs. 0.75) . The 2010 criteria also showed better specificity for predicting RA after long-term follow-up (0.96 vs. 0.86) in the study by Kaarela et al. .



Table 3

Validation studies for the 2010 ACR/EULAR classification criteria for rheumatoid arthritis: RA by expert opinion.












































































Study Patients Inclusion period n Outcome assessment Sensitivity Specificity
Biliavska SAVE study cohort
Early arthritis ≤ 16 weeks symptom duration
2004–2007 303 Investigator’s diagnosis RA 1 year 0.85 0.64
Britsemmer Jan van Breemen Institute EAC
SJC ≥ 2, symptom duration < 2 years, no prior DMARD
2000 455 Expert opinion RA 1 year 0.90 0.48
Cornec Early arthritis, SJC ≥ 1, duration <1 year 1995–1997 164 Expert opinion RA 10 years 0.60 0.89
Fautrel ESPOIR cohort
SJC ≥ 2, duration 6 weeks-6 months
2002–2005 811 Expert opinion RA 2 years 0.95 0.34
Kaarela RA patients, arthritis duration < 6 months vs. controls with definite SpA (ReA, PsA, AS) and SJC ≥ 1 1973–1975 216 Clinical diagnosis determined by long-term follow-up (20 years) 0.79 0.96
Kennish Consecutive patients with joint symptoms in a rheumatology private practice 2010–2011 126 Rheumatologist’s diagnosis 0.97 0.55
Mourao Untreated polyarthritis < 6 weeks 2005–2009 37 RA defined by clinical diagnosis plus fulfilment of 1987 criteria 0.71 0.56
Reneses Early arthritis 4–12 months, SJC ≥ 2 2002–2006 201 Expert opinion RA 1 year 0.87 0.73

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Nov 10, 2017 | Posted by in RHEUMATOLOGY | Comments Off on Early rheumatoid arthritis: The performance of the 2010 ACR/EULAR criteria for diagnosing RA

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